Alsharq Tribune- The Telegraph
A Scottish Labour “implosion” means voters are set to return the largest pro-independence Holyrood majority in the history of devolution, a poll has found.
The survey carried out by Find Out Now suggests that the scale of a dramatic fall in Labour support since the general election in July suggests that the party is now at risk of being overtaken by the Tories, Greens and Lib Dems in seat tallies at next year’s election.
SNP support is at 31 per cent on the constituency vote and 25 per cent on the regional list, which Sir John Curtice, the UK’s leading pollster, said would translate to 51 Holyrood seats.
Although a significant reduction on their current tally, it would see the nationalists emerge comfortably as the largest party, with Labour on 16, a drop of six on its previous record low set in 2021. Labour’s constituency support is now at just 19 per cent in constituencies and 15 per cent on the regional ballot.
The Tories, Greens and Lib Dems would all win 15 seats each, Sir John’s analysis suggests. Reform and Alba, set up by the late Alex Salmond, would also make breakthroughs according to the poll, returning nine and eight MSPs respectively.
That would mean 74 of 129 MSPs would be from pro-independence parties, the highest tally ever recorded.
In July, Labour trounced the SNP, and Anas Sarwar was seen as the clear favourite to become the first Unionist first minister in almost 20 years. However, support for the party has plunged dramatically following unpopular decisions taken by Sir Keir Starmer at Westminster.
“It goes to show how the worst thing that ever happened to Anas Sarwar was Keir Starmer becoming Prime Minister,” Sir John said.
“The SNP, if anything, is slipping back on these polls compared to previous polls. The SNP finds itself where it is basically because Labour support has imploded. “That just gives the SNP the chance of forming the next government, albeit from a rather weaker position than it is at the moment.”
Under Nicola Sturgeon’s leadership at the last election, held the year after the outbreak of the Covid pandemic, the SNP won 64 seats, one short of a majority. A drop to 51 would be the lowest since the 2007 election when the party was led by Salmond.
The SNP said the dramatic fall in Labour support was “hardly surprising” given controversies such as the axing of winter fuel payments, tax hikes and refusing compensation for Waspi women.
I welcome this opinion poll which, if replicated in the Scottish election in May 2026, would see the SNP return to government alongside the largest pro-independence majority the Scottish Parliament has ever seen,” Keith Brown, the SNP deputy leader, said.
“Labour can promise plenty in an election, but they cannot deliver in government. If Labour can’t be trusted in London, they can’t be trusted in Edinburgh.
Jackie Baillie, Scottish Labour’s deputy leader, said her party would “work tirelessly” to earn voters’ trust.
“Labour has put an end to 14 years of Tory chaos and is working to fix the foundations and transform our country,” she said. “Now we need a change of direction in Scotland to put an end to SNP failure and decline.”
