Alsharq Tribune - world news
As the US presidential race nears its climax, Michigan is looming large as one of the states that will largely determine who will fill the White House when Americans vote on Nov. 5 to elect a president to succeed Joe Biden (Democrat), who has announced his withdrawal from the race in support of his running mate Kamala Harris to face former President Donald Trump (Republican). Michigan, whose name means "big lake" in the indigenous language, is the 10th largest US state by population and the 11th in terms of area. Its capital is Lansing, and its largest city is Detroit, the capital of the US automobile industry and for a long time the largest center of this industry in the world. In American political literature, they say that you can't be President of the United States if you don't win Michigan. What makes Michigan so important in presidential elections after Pennsylvania is that any Democratic candidate needs to win the so-called blue wall states, which are Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which guarantee them victory (along with the other blue Democratic states) with the minimum required to win from the electoral college votes, which is 270 votes out of a total of 538. The Republican candidate needs to win at least one of the blue wall states to break the 270-vote barrier and win the election after securing their victory in the red Republican states as well as the swing states in the Sun Belt (Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada) that Biden won in the 2020 elections. With 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is the most important state, with Michigan second with 15 and Wisconsin third with 10. So, there is a lot of anticipation in these three key battleground states, and the people who turn out to vote in them will likely determine the next President of the United States. Although "Arab and Muslim" Americans make up no more than a third of the million people in a state with a population of more than 10 million, according to the US Census Bureau, Michigan was a close race, with Trump winning by around 11,000 votes in 2016 and Biden winning by 154,000 votes in 2020, so small shifts can mean a lot to the final outcome. Michigan Arabs constitute one of the largest Arab communities in the United States, and the community is mainly concentrated in the cities of Dearborn and Detroit. Their history dates back to the early 20th century when many immigrated in search of work opportunities. Today, many restaurants, shops, and cultural centers can be found that reflect Arab heritage, in addition to cultural celebrations and events that promote Arab identity in the United States. Historically, the votes of Michigan's Arabs and Muslims tend to lean towards the Democratic camp, and by the numbers, all Democratic candidates have won Michigan since the 1992 elections, except for Hillary Clinton, from whom Donald Trump took the state in 2016 before Joe Biden regained it in 2020 by a difference of 154,000 votes. As evidence of the weight of this state, whoever Michigan voted for won the White House nine times in the last 12 presidential elections, but the 2024 race might be a surprise. This year's presidential race has seen several ups and downs, from President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race and his endorsement of his vice president, Harris, as the Democratic Party's candidate, to Trump surviving two assassination attempts as he looks to return to the White House. As the United States awaits the end of the presidential race, Trump (78 years old) and Harris (59 years old) appear to be close in the polls, making it difficult to predict the winner of the presidential race. A Michigan poll showed Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump with 46.8 percent, while Michigan was Trump's first stop after the assassination attempt, but it seems that this has not helped him so far. While the sound of cannons and air strikes are echoing in southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, the echo of those strikes is heard loudly in the United States, specifically in the most important swing state, Michigan. In this regard, Kamala Harris finds herself in a difficult position, between satisfying the important Arab and Muslim votes of Michigan in the electoral race and maintaining President Joe Biden's policy of supporting the war against the Gaza Strip, which increases the risk of marginalizing or alienating the votes of American Muslim voters and voters of Arab origin. Harris is trying to strike a difficult balance, following in Biden's footsteps by pledging support for the Israeli entity, saying she will always ensure that Israel has the ability to defend itself, but she has been more forceful than the president in her calls for a ceasefire. Speaking about the humanitarian situation in Gaza, she said she would not be silent. As for the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, he does not hide in his statements his harsh tone against the victims of the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip and recently in Lebanon. Rather, he stated on more than one occasion the necessity of continuing support for the Israeli entity's government. A new poll has revealed a "division" among Muslim voters in the United States regarding the candidates for the presidential election scheduled for next November. The poll, conducted by the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) between Aug. 25-27, indicated that a large number of voters who are dissatisfied with the position of the main candidates from both parties (Democratic and Republican) in support of the war on Gaza, are looking to options from other parties. According to the results of the first national presidential poll of Muslim-American voter preferences since Vice President Kamala Harris replaced President Joe Biden, 29.4 percent intend to vote for Harris, putting her in a close tie with Green Party candidate Jill Stein, a "fierce critic" of the war on Gaza, who received the support of 29.1 percent of the survey sample. Only 11.2 percent of American Muslims plan to vote for Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump. While Michigan Arabs have yet to make up their minds about Joe Biden's Democratic successor, Kamala Harris, they have largely identified three main points as a bet on Donald Trump if he wants their votes in the most prominent state in the electoral race, stating more clearly that he wants an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, that he supports the two-state solution, and that there is no ban on Muslims entering the United States, in reference to the former president's ban on immigration from a number of Muslim-majority countries during his presidency. Both the Democratic and Republican camps fear that their efforts to attract Arabs and Muslims in the United States, and the people of Michigan in particular, will be in vain, and that the vote on November 5 will turn into a punitive vote in protest of the positions of the two parties and the two candidates on the situation in the Middle East, especially the war on Gaza and, more recently, the aggression on Lebanon. Observers believe that the Biden administration, despite its efforts to achieve a ceasefire, lacks the will to stop the bloodshed in the stricken Gaza Strip for a whole year, and has even obstructed more than once the issuance of UN Security Council resolutions to stop the aggression. The same applies to the position of the Republicans, represented by former President Donald Trump. The most pressing issues for Muslim voters, according to the poll, include international human rights, religious freedom, the right to health care, and hate crimes. On the foreign policy front, the Israeli aggression on Gaza is a top priority. Additionally, a poll by Emerson College and The Hill found that the economy is also a priority for about a third (31 percent) of Michigan voters, followed by immigration (13 percent), threats to democracy (12 percent), health care (10 percent), and the cost of housing, education, crime, and abortion. Assistant Professor of Comparative and International Politics at Georgetown University in Qatar Amanda Garrett said in an exclusive interview with Qatar News Agency (QNA) that President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw from the election race less than six months before the election was a risky move. She noted however that replacing Biden with Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate was a strategic choice to increase the chances of winning, adding that Harris has a greater chance than Biden in the election race against Republican candidate Donald Trump. Regarding her expectations about how Harris' policies might differ from Biden's if she wins, Garrett noted that Harris has insisted her administration would not be a continuation of the current administration, as she belongs to a new generation of leadership that will bring a fresh approach to the White House. Garrett added that Harris is likely to continue Biden's approach in some areas, such as immigration, where she has expressed support for Biden's recent initiatives. On the topic of rising global and regional political tensions and their impact on the US presidential election, Garrett said that in terms of foreign policy, the candidates represent extremely different camps, with Trumps campaign advocating an isolationist worldview, while Harris supports an opposing approach that strengthens US alliances. She pointed out that Trump aims to end the Ukraine war as soon as possible, whereas Harris rejects negotiations on that front. She added that recent events in the Middle East have also drawn the United States in, with the Biden administration supporting Israel and its attack on Gaza, while Trump has also promised to end this conflict as soon as possible. She noted that most American elections are not won based on foreign policy issues, as most Americans remain primarily concerned with domestic issues and will largely vote based on candidates perceived ability to address their concerns on this front. Garrett stressed that the state of the economy remains the most critical issue for American voters, who are deeply concerned about economic instability, reduced purchasing power, inflation, and rising prices, consistently ranking the economy as the top priority in polls. Regarding immigration, the second most pressing issue for voters, Garrett mentioned that there may not be a significant gap between Harris and Trump on this issue, as both candidates advocate for stronger border security, ultimately aiming to reduce the number of migrants entering the US. She added that, for Harris, this means crafting a more streamlined asylum policy to control numbers, redirecting more focus to monitoring the southern border, and even closing the border when daily crossings reach a critical threshold. For Trump meanwhile, she said it involves allocating resources to monitor the southern border, with a strong emphasis on large-scale deportations of undocumented migrants in the US. She added that although the rhetoric and anti-immigration stance differ between the Republican and Democratic camps, their policy goals may not differ significantly. When asked about whether the ongoing Israeli attacks on Gaza might mobilize American Muslim voters toward one candidate over the other, Garrett cited the latest report from the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding (ISPU), which confirmed that Gaza is among the top political concerns for American Muslims ahead of the upcoming election. She said that, historically, Arab and Muslim communities in the US have supported Democratic candidates, but dissatisfaction with Biden's support for Israeli attacks on Gaza and Lebanon, along with Harris reluctance to deviate significantly from the Biden administrations foreign policy stance, could likely result in a loss of support from this voter bloc. She highlighted that Biden had already lost substantial support from this constituency before stepping aside, and Harris has so far failed to regain it. She said that support for Trump has also remained relatively low among the Arab community (around 18%) and has not changed significantly since the Gaza crisis. She also noted that both Harris and Trump are actively courting Muslim and Arab voters in Michigan, a key swing state and home to one of the largest Arab communities in the US, where each needs the support of this crucial voting bloc. Garrett noted that Harris risks losing further support from this group if she cannot articulate a more favorable foreign policy stance that would reduce military and diplomatic support for Israel. She added that, while the Arab community in the US is not a monolithic voting bloc, supporting the Democrats may be viewed as the more pragmatic option overall, while others may consider voting for Trump, and some have suggested they might support a third-party candidate like the Green Party in protest (or simply abstain from voting altogether). She said that in all these scenarios, the Arab vote, in response to the situation in Gaza, has the potential to impact the election outcome.
